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WEB-BASED SESSION DESCRIPTIONS |
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Model Building and Basic Outputs
This session provides the foundation for building models in DPL. It uses an Excel-based financial model
as the example case from which a DPL model is built and analyzed. The session involves presentation of slide
materials by the session leader and worked examples done by the attendees. The focus is on teaching you how
to develop DPL models from spreadsheets and generate the fundamental DPL outputs of a probabilistic analysis.
Duration
Three hours
Who Should Sign-up
This session is intended for those who wish to use DPL to build and analyze
decision analysis models and/or risk analysis models and who have little or no experience with DPL.
Suggested Prerequisites
Familiarity with decision analysis or risk analysis is helpful. No DPL
experience is required but participants should be familiar with Microsoft Excel and Windows.
Session Topics
Building influence diagrams from Excel models
Creating symmetric decision trees
Conducting deterministic sensitivity analysis using Tornado diagrams
Analyzing decisions using decision Policy Trees and Risk Profiles
Sensitivity Analyses and Further Outputs
This session builds on the Model Building and Basic Outputs session. It provides further instruction
on how to develop DPL models directly and covers the range of outputs available in DPL.
Slide material is presented by the session leader and examples are perfomed by attendees.
The focus is on teaching you how to make the most of the advanced analysis features and
processing power of DPL.
Duration
Three hours
Who Should Sign-up
This session is for those who have taken the Model Building session or have
some experience with DPL and are looking to learn about some of the additional features and outputs of DPL.
Suggested Prerequisites
Participants should be familiar with building models, conducting analyses and interpreting
results in DPL, either through taking the Model Building session, or equivalent experience.
Session Topics
Comparing Risk Profiles
Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using Tornado and Rainbow diagrams
Using DPL's Policy Summary
Understanding and using DPL's two-way sensitivity analysis features
Using the Time Series Percentiles feature
Tracking multiple attributes
Dependence and Asymmetric Trees
This session focusses on a few more advanced DPL modeling techniques. Specifically, it covers introducing dependence between variables in the influence diagram
and using DPL's decision tree development environment. Hands-on worked examples are used to show the various techniques to account
for dependence between variable in your decision model and how to build decision trees directly in DPL.
Duration
Two hours
Who Should Attend
This session is for those who have taken both the Model Building session and the Sensitivity analysis session or have
signficant experience with DPL, and are looking to learn more about some of the more advanced features of DPL.
Suggested Prerequisites
Participants should be familiar with building models, conducting analyses, conducting sensitivity analyses and interpreting
results in DPL either through taking the three-hour sessions above or equivalent experience.
Workshop Topics
Introducing dependence
Value-wise and probabilistic dependence
Advanced conditioning
Building decision trees from an influence diagram
Manipulating decision trees
Creating asymmetric trees
Developing pay-as-you-go models
Real Options Analysis with DPL
Real options are a useful to technique to model management flexibility when considering a development project or new business
venture. Real options can be modeled in DPL using downstream decisions (i.e., decisions that occur after some uncertainty has neen resolved).
This session demonstrates the techniques used in DPL to model real options.
Duration
Two hours
Who Should Attend
This session is for those who have taken have signficant experience with DPL and are looking to use real options techniques
in their business to model uncertainty and management flexibility in valuing strategic investments.
Suggested Prerequisites
Participants should have experience with building models, conducting analyses, conducting sensitivity analyses and interpreting
results in DPL.
Workshop Topics
Real options overview
Downstream decisions
Learning models
Risk neutral probabilities
Valuing a real option in DPL
Spreadsheet Conversion and DPL Code
Many DPL application involve linking a model to a spreadsheet. While the fastest way to development this type of model is
to link DPL to the spreadsheet, larger models may suffer from long runtimes due to the need for Excel to recalculate repeatedly.
Spreadsheet conversion dramatically improves runtimes. This session discusses spreadsheet conversion and uses hands on examples to show
the techniques needed to convert a spreadsheet to DPL code. DPL's graphical user interface is the easiest way to build models
in DPL for most type of models. However, there are certain applications where using DPL code may be more efficient. In addition, having a
familiarity with DPL code makes working with converted spreadsheets easier.
Duration
Two hours
Who Should Attend
This session is for those who have taken have signficant experience with DPL and have a need to improve runtime of large models or
wish to pursue more advanced modeling techniques in DPL code.
Suggested Prerequisites
Participants should have experience with building models, conducting analyses, conducting sensitivity analysis and interpreting
results in DPL.
Workshop Topics
Converting spreadsheets
Good spreadsheet programming techniques
When to use DPL code
Building recombining models with lottery optimization
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